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diff --git a/dlr/dlr.py b/dlr/dlr.py
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+# combat simulator for Warlords 3 Darklords Rising
+import random
+
+# before combat
+# add up curse of each side, 4% chance per curse per opponent to remove their bless (apply -1 str) and medals
+# add up posion of each side, 4% chance per poison per opponent to apply -2 str (min 1)
+# add up disease of each side, 4% chance per disease per opponent to apply -1 hits (min 1)
+# add up paralysis of each side ... no effect on combat results, just on movement afterwards
+
+# calculate stack bonuses
+# add your best morale bonus from unit, item, and spell - cap at +5, subtract enemy fear, cap at -1
+# repeat for fortify vs siege
+# repeat for leadership vs chaos
+# cap total between -3 and +5
+
+# calculate unit bonuses
+# base strength, cap at 9
+# add stack bonus, cap at 14
+# add item/spell to hero, cap at 15
+# add banding bonuses, cap at 15
+
+# special attacks
+# calculate net ward (unit's warding plus up to 3 group warding)
+# attack with acid, 10% per (acid minus opponent's acid+ward) to halve opponent strength, rounded down
+# if acid missed, attack with lightning, 10% per (lightning minus opponent's lightning+ward) to halve opponent hits, rounded down
+# (it is arguably a bug that acid hits prevent lightning from happening)
+# attack with assassin, 10% per (assassin minus opponent's assassin+ward) to instant kill
+# make N missile attacks per combat. hits are instant kills, +3 str against fliers, 4-hit targets are immune if not flying
+
+class Unit:
+    strength = 1
+    hits = 1
+    medals = 0
+
+    def __init__(self, strength, hits):
+        self.strength = strength
+        self.hits = hits
+
+# normal combat
+def calculate_fight(a, b, die_size=20):
+    # TODO medals
+
+    # roll success odds
+    p_a = (a.strength / die_size) * (1 - b.strength / die_size)
+    p_b = (b.strength / die_size) * (1 - a.strength / die_size)
+    # round success odds
+    p_a_hits = p_a / (p_a + p_b)
+    p_b_hits = p_b / (p_a + p_b)
+    assert(0.999 < p_a_hits + p_b_hits < 1.001)
+
+    return recurse_hits(p_a_hits, p_b_hits, a.hits, b.hits)
+
+def recurse_hits(p_a, p_b, h_a, h_b):
+    if h_a == 0:
+        return 0
+    if h_b == 0:
+        return 1
+    return p_a * recurse_hits(p_a, p_b, h_a, h_b - 1) + p_b * recurse_hits(p_a, p_b, h_a - 1, h_b)
+
+
+def simulate_fight(a, b):
+    a_hits = a.hits
+    b_hits = b.hits
+    
+    while a_hits > 0 and b_hits > 0:
+        # attempt some rolls
+        a_roll = random.randint(1, 20)
+        if a.medals > 0:
+            a_roll = min(a_roll, random.randint(1, 34 - 4*a.medals))
+
+        b_roll = random.randint(1, 20)
+        if b.medals > 0:
+            b_roll = min(b_roll, random.randint(1, 34 - 4*b.medals))
+
+        if a_roll <= a.strength and not b_roll <= b.strength:
+            b_hits = b_hits - 1
+            # check here for trample and slayer
+        elif b_roll <= b.strength and not a_roll <= a.strength:
+            a_hits = a_hits - 1
+            # check here for trample and slayer
+
+    if a_hits <= 0:
+        return 0
+    else:
+        return 1
+
+a = Unit(2,2)
+b = Unit(2,1)
+
+a_wins = 0
+for i in range(10000):
+    a_wins = a_wins + simulate_fight(a, b)
+calc_odds = calculate_fight(a, b)
+print(f'{a.strength}/{a.hits} vs {b.strength}/{b.hits}')
+print(f'monte carlo: {a_wins/100}%')
+print(f'simulated: {calc_odds*100}%')